South Carolina Politisite Political Predictions, Huckabee by 5% Points - Update McCain Wins by 3%

Politisite Predicts Huckabee by 5% Points

See

for Final outcome of election

Here is the Race we have had our finger on. Iron Mill Interactive Media is based in Columbia South Carolina. Politisite is our political science component. Without a great deal of analysis, here is our projections for South Carolina.

Huckabee 32%

McCain 27%

Thompson 19%

Romney 11%

Paul 6%

Giuliani 4%

Hunter 1%

Here are some of my observations

from the South Carolina Primary

I did want to share that it is raining

and 39 degrees here in Columbia, SC. The north has sleet and

snow with much lower temperatures. With, what we call here,

cold temperatures, we can project that the elderly and young will be

less representative in the election. Many news services have

been projecting low turn out. Politisite took a quick run to the

various voting precincts in the area, the turn out appears to be

medium to high.

Governor Mike Huckabee took his usual

12 miles jog with supporter, South Carolina’s Lt. Governor.

Huckabee said to reporters that if he can run in the rain, voters

will be able to make it to the voting precinct in there area.

In the Myrtle Beach area, Voting

machines malfunctioned and paper ballots had to be used by voters.

This is a heavy John McCain area and when the paper ballots ran out

the McCain camp asked the state to leave the presents open a bit

longer to compensate for the voters who could not vote. This

will probably allow the voting in Myrtle Beach area to continue to

8:00 pm

I also wanted to show who the movers

and shakers in South Carolina Politics are supporting. Senator

Lindsy Graham is a McCain Supporter. Graham the senior senator

supported the failed McCain in the 2000 Election as well. The

Ultra Conservative Senator Jim DeMint is a major supporter of

Governor Mitt Romney. Governor Mike Huckabee’s

endorsements are Lieutenant

Governor Andre Bauer, and former Governor David Beasley. As

you can see, there is a reverse opinion who can better lead our

county.

Here is what others are saying

Voters, candidates come out to polls

By Staff reports – Updates today, results tonight at TheState.com

Tracy Glantz/[email protected]
Mike Huckabee and his wife

Janet visit with voters and supporters at the Polo Road Park. Here the

Huckabees talk with Sally Cochran from Anderson, who happened on the

opportunity to meet them. Cochran voted for Huckabee absentee.

Tracy Glantz/[email protected]

Mike Huckabee and his wife Janet visit with voters and supporters at

the Polo Road Park. Here the Huckabees talk with Sally Cochran from

Anderson, who happened on the opportunity to meet them. Cochran voted

for Huckabee absentee.

Republican presidential candidate Mike Huckabee created quite a

scene this morning as he showed up at the Wildewood Precinct at Polo

Road Park in Richland County around 9:30 a.m. He was accompanying his

South Carolina campaign chairman, Mike Campbell, who voted at the

precinct.

About 30 people, mostly media members, crowded around Huckabee just

outside the entrance to Polo Road Park. The entourage later blocked

traffic as they followed Huckabee across the street, where he greeted

campaign workers holding up signs backing his candidacy.

Standing in the pouring rain, Huckabee praised his supporters.

“Our voters are like the post office,” he said. “They don’t let rain, sleet or snow keep anybody home.”

He joked that voters who support the other candidates should remain safe in their homes away from the cold rain.

The weather today is turning worse: Snow is coming to the Midlands

in late afternoon, but shouldn’t stick to the roads. In the Upstate, 1

to 2 inches of snow is expected this afternoon.

John McCain made an appearance at West Ashley Middle School around

noon, greeting about three dozen supporters for 10 minutes. He is

awaiting results this evening at The Citadel.

Morning voter turnout was low at a couple of the larger Lexington

County precincts, according to poll workers. Both the Lexington 1

precinct at Saxe Gotha Presbyterian Church and Irmo precinct at Irmo

Elementary School are usually Republican bastions with residents

waiting in lines to vote. While the stream of voters into those polling

places Saturday was steady, neither had lines to speak of.

A few voters were surprised to find their polling places closed.

Election officials changed the locations of eight polling places in

Richland County; two in Lexington County were combined, too. Lake

Murray 1 precinct, which used to have its polling place at the Lake

Murray Community Center at 1031 St. Peters Church Road, now is at St.

Peter’s Church, at 1130 St. Peters Church Road.

A Blythewood area voter complained that his voter registration card

had incorrect information about his polling place. Howard Peake had

voted in Blythewood in the past, but the new registration card said his

precinct should vote at Kelly Mill Elementary School at 1141 Kelly Mill

Road.

Peake said he spent 30 minutes looking for Kelly Mill Elementary

School. All he could find was Kelly Road Middle School. Finally

stopping there to ask where the elementary school was, he found out he

was supposed to vote at the mid-dle school. “That can be very

misleading for the first time you vote at a new place,” Peake said.

Elsewhere in the sate, a computer programming error caused several

electronic voting machines to not work when the polls opened at 7 a.m.

today for the Republican primary, according to Sandy Martin, Horry

County’s Voters Registration and Election director.

“We’re working on getting it all worked out,” Martin said at 9:15

a.m. “Most of them are up and running now. There are a few scattered

precincts we haven’t got to yet.”

Martin said voters used paper ballots to cast their votes in places at precincts where electronic machines malfunctioned.

Source: thestate.com via politisite

First in the South

by Carl Cameron

Turnout is steady in the low country and lighter in the upstate.

South Carolina Republican Party officials expect half a million

votes will be cast provided the weather isn’t too lousy in the upstate.

Both Mike Huckabee and John McCain SHOULD win South Carolina. The latest American Research Group Poll taken 1/17-1/18 shows:

Huckabee 33% McCain 26% Thompson 21% Romney 9% undecided 4%

This is a huge jump for Huckabee who was in second place two days

ago. AND MOST pollsters and state political pros will tell you that

about 1 in 5 are undecided. I’ve found undecideds at both Huckabee and

McCain events without really even trying. The McCain camp said it was

looking at survey data suggesting they were breaking evenly with

Huckabee among undecideds. But its tough for pollsters to catch which

way undecideds break when it happens on the final day. Though I suspect

the gap is not a big as what ARG has pickedup, I think my old pal

pollster Dick Bennett may have found on the phone what is visible on

the ground, Huckabee has buzz and his supporters have more intensity

than McCain.[/q]

Huckabee, McCain in South Carolina dead heat

By John Whitesides, Political Correspondent

COLUMBIA, South Carolina (Reuters) – Republicans John McCain and Mike Huckabee are in a statistical dead heat as voters head to the polls in South Carolina’s presidential primary, according to a Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby poll released on Saturday.

Huckabee, a former Arkansas governor, shaved six points off McCain’s lead in the tracking poll to trail the Arizona senator by just one point, 27 percent to 26 percent, as voting began — well within the 3.4 percent margin of error.

In Nevada, which also holds a presidential nominating contest on Saturday, Democrat Hillary Clinton maintained a stable 6-point lead over rival Barack Obama, 45 percent to 39 percent, with John Edwards well back at 6 percent.

In both states, large pools of undecided or persuadable voters make the outcomes unpredictable. The uncertainty is compounded in Nevada, a relative newcomer to early nominating contests, because it has no real track record on turnout.

“It’s a very close race in Nevada — it’s all about turnout,” said pollster John Zogby. “It’s probably Clinton’s to lose, but how engaged will people be to come out and vote?”

Huckabee, a Baptist minister whose January 3 win in Iowa was fueled by support from evangelicals, has pulled even with McCain in South Carolina by gaining ground among Republicans and conservatives.

McCain still holds healthy leads among independents and Democrats, who do not hold their primary in South Carolina until

Source: reuters.com via politisite

McCain,

Huckabee Push Palmetto State Win

Neither snow nor sleet nor freezing rain will keep South Carolina

Republicans away from the polls; at least that’s what John McCain and

Mike Huckabee are hoping. They are in a statistical dead heat if the

polls can be believed.

Parts of Upstate South Carolina are a freezing sloppy mess. In

Myrtle Beach, those that made it to the polls found the process a

sloppy mess as well. Reports state the electronic voting machines in

Horry County failed so they switched to paper ballots, of which they

ran out. Some claim they were sent away never having cast a vote.

A win in South Carolina would mean solid footing in the nomination

climb for either McCain or Huckabee, giving one of them two important

wins heading into Florida January 29th and the 24 states of Super

Tuesday February 5th.

Many of the media wags are saying the state will be the death knell

for Fred Thompson’s campaign. You wouldn’t know from his schedule, he

spent the day campaigning at a gun show and will party tonight at USC’s

Russell House.

While Mitt Romney is in Columbia tonight, his mind is on Las Vegas.

Romney came out ahead in the Nevada Caucus vote today. Romney got 52%

of votes but the big story out of the west may well be who came second,

Ron Paul scored more votes than John McCain did among caucus goers for

a second place finish in Nevada.

If you’ve been watching WSAV over the past two weeks you’ve seen

just how much Ron Paul spent on advertising in South Carolina so

tonight’s final could be interesting for the dark horse candidate.

Source: wsav.com via politisite

American Research Group – South Carolina

Republicans
Giuliani    3%
Huckabee33%
Hunter    1%
Keyes    1%
McCain    26%
Paul    2%
Romney    9%
Thompson21%
Undecided4%