Defeating Clinton and locking up nomination fails to propel Obama forward

Defeating Hillary Clinton and locking up the Democratic Party nomination fails to propel Obama forward

By Albert N. Milliron , Politisite.com

Usually when a candidate becomes the presumptive nominee a phenomenon called the, “Bounce” occurs in the next 2 polling cycles. Obama is atypical in this regard. He does hold a 4 Point lead above McCain but he retained this lead while Clinton was still running.

What does it all mean? In Political polling, back to the seventies, the nominee received 7-10 point jump following his nominee status. Another observation, woman may not have made the move to Obama and have remained with McCain. I expect woman to begin looking more at Obama following the August Convention in Denver

Zogby

Defeating Hillary Clinton and locking up the Democratic Party nomination fails to propel Obama forward

UTICA, New York – Democrat Barack Obama holds an edge over Republican John McCain in the race for U.S. President, but his recent win of his party’s nomination has not produced a big bounce, the latest Reuters/Zogby telephone survey shows.

Source: zogby.com via politisite

Real Clear Politics

Zogby’s new survey (June 12-14, 1,113 LV, MoE +/-3.0%) shows Obama leading McCain by 5 but the pollster writes that Obama’s “recent win of his party’s nomination has not produced a big bounce.” In fact, he lost a bit of ground against McCain:

Obama 47 (-1 vs. last survey May 15-18)
McCain 42 (+2)
Undecided 12

Overall, Obama leads McCain in the RCP National Average by 4.1%.

Source: time-blog.com via politisite