Gallup Daily: Obama Lead Among Likely Voters 5 to 7 Points

PRINCETON, NJ — Barack Obama holds a statistically significant lead over John McCain in both Gallup likely voter models, according to Oct. 27-29 Gallup Poll Daily tracking. In the traditional model, which defines likely voters based on current voting intention and past voting behavior, Obama holds a 50% to 45% lead. In the expanded model, in which only current voting intentions are considered, his lead is 51% to 44%.

As in any election, the final outcome, in large part, hinges on who turns out to vote and who does not. If all registered voters participated, Obama would probably win comfortably. He leads McCain by 50% to 42% in the latest estimate of registered voter preferences, and has averaged a nine percentage point lead since Oct. 1. (To view the complete trend since March 7, 2008, click here.)