Politisite Political Projections: Ohio

Super Tuesday Two Ohio Politisite Political Projections

By Albert N. Milliron,  Chief Political Correspondent, Iron Mill Interactive Media, Inc / Politisite.com

Web Posted March 3, 2008 7:00 pm. EST, 0000 UTC

Outlook:
 

1. Recent polling
   1. Recent Polling has indicated an up trend in Barack Obama’s polling numbers with 1 in the 4 polls reported March 1st giving him a 2 percentage point lead . Hilliary Clinton had a 20+ percentage spread just after super Tuesday. Her lead has dwindled to into the single digits eroding a clear win to within the margin of error. Ohio is more female and whiter than the US Average. There is also a significant number of 65+ voters as well as a slightly below average African-American Population. These demographics favor Hilliary Clinton. With all of Obama’s key demographics leaning toward Clinton he is having a difficult time here. The percentage spreads on the 28th were 4 ½ % . Today’s polls show a widening to 6 ½ % moving back in Hilliary’s direction.
2. Evans-Novak
   1. Evans and Novak is reporting that the best indicter that Hilliary Clinton’s distress is that insiders are bad mouthing her as a very poor candidate. Giving a clear indication that her candidacy is dead.
3. Cleveland Debate
   1. Obama pointed out that in the debate that if Hilliary was taking credit for all of the Clinton Years success, she will have to take credit for the Failures pointing to NAFTA as a failure to Ohio. Clinton also made a point that, “I always gets the first question in the debates, she doesn’t mind fielding them, but I always seem to get the first question”. Most of the commentary on the blogs and news was that she appeared un-presidential. How will Clinton Administration deal with a negative press when making decisions as president?
4. NAFTA
   1. Ohio was hit very hard, loosing 400 thousand jobs, due to NAFTA. Obama is pointing out that NAFTA was a Clinton endorsed program and Hilliary has taken credit for most of the, “Clinton Years” success.
5. Tony Rezko
   1. Antoin “Tony” Rezko is in the news negativity affecting Senator Obama. Jury selection is on going in the Chicago businessman’s political corruption trial. Obama is receiving more questions from media leading up to Tuesdays election. Rezko, a land developer, gave the Obama campaign more than $150,000. Obama told reporters that he has given most of the money in Rezko-related contributions to charity. Obama stated to reporters that, he made a mistake” questioning Obama’s judgment.
6. Saturday Night Live Appearance.
   1. Hilliary Clinton’s appearance on NBC’s Saturday Night Live has shown Hillary’s, “Other side” where she appeared with the actress who plays her. While we are beginning to see a multiple personality syndrome with Hilliary, the appearance will positively help her in Tuesday.

Obama: February 11th was 21% points behind. Began trending upward to within 2 points of the lead. Is now trending downward to 7 points off the lead. One poll, Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby has Obama winning by 2 % Points.

Clinton: From February 12th 21% ahead. Began trending downward to February 21st to 8% Points ahead. Uptrend for one tracking poll day. Continued down trend to February 28 2% point lead.

Conclusion:

Clinton: Wins with 52% points

Obama: Loses at 48% Points

Here’s what others are saying

Pollster.com: The Demographics of Ohio Polls

The racial composition of the Ohio Democratic electorate is less of a puzzle than in Texas, if only because Ohio’s Latino population is relatively small (amounting to 3% or less on the various polls that reported it). Still, the surveys show meaningful variation in their African American composition from a low of 12% on the University of Cincinnati “Ohio Poll” to a high of 22% on today’s new poll from the Cleveland Plain Dealer and Mason-Dixon Polling and Research. With Barack Obama winning the overwhelming majority of black voters, differences of a few percentage points can have a significant affect on vote preference. If African Americans had been 16% of the respondents instead of 22% in the PD/Mason-Dixon poll, Clinton would lead by roughly 10 rather than 4 percentage points.

Source: pollster.com via politisite

Closing polls: Who’s got the momentum? (Spin Cycle)

Closing polls: Who’s got the momentum?

Here are charts of the polling averages in Ohio and Texas. There’s evidence — and a widely held sense — that the NAFTA story and Hillary’s 3 am ad (and maybe the Rezko story) have given her momentum going into tomorrow.

Obviously, Obama has soared while she has flatlined since January. But it looks like he’s falling short — maybe by a pretty healthy margin — in Ohio, and without momentum his prospects are dicey in Texas. So the signs are that this race may be an even bigger mess on Wednesday than it is now — Obama with the delegates, Hillary with momentum:

Source: weblogs.newsday.com via politisite

 

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